AGP Executive Report

Kombucha Growth: Remedy has launched limited-edition Merry Cherry as UK grocery kombucha sales climbed 14% to £47.2m. The brand will donate 10p per bottle to food-poverty charity Social Bite. Gut Health: Biotiful has refreshed its packaging to support growth, as the UK kefir market’s value has risen 241% in five years. Supplier Pressure: West Midlands halal frozen-food maker Quality Bites has entered liquidation, ending supply to more than 1,000 independent shops. Food Safety: Arla recalled its 200g Protein Salted Caramel and Chocolate puddings after glass was found in the products. Retail Climate: UK sales fell 0.4% in September, despite 0.7% growth across the third quarter, as households face pressure on spending. British Crops: Calls to eat more UK-grown peas aim to protect Lincolnshire’s crop, with consumption at a 50-year low.

Pub Trade: Heineken has warned UK pubs that weight-loss drugs could curb beer and cider sales, urging venues to promote half-pints, alcohol-free options and snacks to keep customers coming in. Retail and Resilience: Sainsbury’s says selling Argos will leave it more focused on food, while warning that energy and fertiliser costs could push grocery prices higher and calling for stronger UK food production. Food Access: Sainsbury’s is bringing back a £18 Healthy Start top-up for eligible families ahead of Christmas, while Oxford’s student union has launched a free-access pantry offering essentials to students.

Food Security: A Vegan Society survey found 72% of UK adults are concerned about food security, while 69% would consider cutting meat and dairy to strengthen supply. Industry Priorities: More than 460 delegates at IGD’s Future of the UK Food System conference called for closer cooperation on resilience, public health and access to healthy food. UK Manufacturing: Mondelēz says its contribution to the West Midlands economy neared £1bn in 2025, up 112% since 2021, with Cadbury production spanning sites across the region and beyond. Business Watch: A UK drinks supplier serving Tesco and Asda has entered administration after 27 years, putting more than 25 jobs at risk. Household Readiness: The government is advising households to keep three days of essentials, including food and water, in case services are disrupted.

Emergency Planning: With Storm Boelo threatening travel and power disruption, the government is urging households to keep three days of non-perishable food and water at home. Food Safety: Shoppers were warned not to eat popular puddings pulled from UK supermarkets over possible glass contamination. Household Budgets: UK retail sales fell 0.4% in September as shoppers cut back, including on food; inflation rose to 3.5%, though food price rises remained steady. Family Support: Sainsbury’s introduced a £3 weekly top-up for eligible families, a first for a UK supermarket. Pub Trade: Heineken says weight-loss drugs could curb beer sales and is urging pubs to adapt with smaller serves and more low- and no-alcohol options. British Farming: Aldi and ABP launched a scheme to support 1,000 British farmers.

Emergency Readiness: Government guidance urges households to keep three days of non-perishable food and water at home in case severe weather or cyberattacks disrupt services. Food Access: Wigan’s new borough food partnership will bring councils, businesses and community groups together to tackle food poverty and waste, and make healthier food more affordable. Shopper Spending: September retail sales volumes fell 0.4% as households cut back, while consumer confidence suffered its steepest monthly drop since the early pandemic. Pubs & Drinks: Heineken warns the growth of weight-loss drugs could weaken beer sales in British pubs. British Farming: M&S plans to make British beef and lamb more affordable, while Aldi’s new scheme with ABP aims to support 1,000 farmers.

Retail & Households: UK retail sales fell 0.4% in September as shoppers cut back, including on food, ahead of next week’s Budget. British Farming: M&S is cutting prices on selected British beef, lamb and pork, saying the move will support farmers while making home-grown meat more affordable. Food Processing: Hilton Foods is consulting on job cuts at its Seachill seafood site in Grimsby as the business reviews its seafood operations. Pubs & Drinks: Heineken warns weight-loss drugs could weigh on beer sales in British pubs. Grocery Rules: The competition watchdog has brought Aldi and Lidl under the same rules as the UK’s largest grocery retailers. Emergency Planning: Government guidance urges households to keep three days’ worth of food and water at home for possible disruption.

Hospitality Pressures: Nearly nine in ten hospitality businesses say food and drink inflation is their biggest non-tax concern, while rising energy bills are squeezing profits. Trade bodies warn that 80% say conditions are stifling investment, despite summer sales growth. Changing Drinking Habits: Heineken has urged British pubs to offer smaller servings and more low- and no-alcohol options, warning that weight-loss drugs could reduce drinking and customer spending. Shoppers Pull Back: UK retail sales fell 0.4% in September, more than expected, while consumer confidence suffered its steepest monthly drop since the pandemic began. Food and drink sales also eased slightly. Backing British Beef: Aldi is launching a scheme with ABP to support around 1,000 farmers with extra payments, advice and peer networks as they improve soil health, biodiversity and animal welfare. Plant-Based Investment: The Tofoo Co. is building a new Malton factory to double tofu production and support its growth plans.

Food Resilience: The Government’s new Be Ready campaign asks households to keep three days of non-perishable food and bottled water in case of major disruption. Prices & Spending: UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, though food-price rises were reported as steady; Sainsbury’s chief says Christmas food increases may be less severe than feared, while the Food and Drink Federation flags ongoing cost-of-living pressures. Industry Moves: A drinks supplier to Tesco and Asda has entered administration after 27 years, putting 27 jobs at risk. French food manufacturer Fleury Michon has acquired plant-based brand Allplants. Farming & Retail: Aldi has launched a beef supply initiative for British farmers. Local Food Economy: Knutsford’s £2.5m School Yard project will turn a former school into a food hall with up to six street-food vendors, opening next spring.

Food Safety: The FSA has warned shoppers not to eat several Full On Flapjacks products because they contain undeclared almonds, soya and wheat. Hospitality: UK managed pub and restaurant groups lifted like-for-like sales 2.7% in September, their fifth consecutive monthly rise; pub sales grew 3.8%. Costs and Retail: Inflation reached 3.5%, while food inflation held at 1.3%. Sainsbury’s raised its profit outlook but reported slower sales growth and urged the Chancellor to avoid further tax and labour-cost increases. The BRC is calling for a business-rates freeze. Shopper Support: Sainsbury’s has introduced a £3 weekly top-up for eligible families, as food-bank demand is forecast to keep rising. Investment: Waitrose plans four new shops in 2027, following its first supermarket opening in eight years. Trade: A new India–UK business pact aims to grow processed-food trade, with tariffs removed on products including processed foods, shrimp and instant coffee.

Product Safety: Home Bargains recalled five beer lines over possible rodent contamination at a brewery, urging customers not to drink affected kegs and to return them for a refund. Household Pressure: UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September as fuel costs climbed, while food prices held steady. Charities warn food bank need could reach 9.1 million people by 2029, with reports highlighting deepening hardship for families. Trade & Supply: The fresh produce sector warns new import costs could add £300 million to its bills. The Scotch Whisky Association is also pressing India to ease testing rules for UK spirits under the trade deal. Industry Moves: Costa opened its first Cineworld branch in Ashton-under-Lyne, with up to 26 sites planned nationwide. Burger King UK and The Vegetarian Butcher are offering a buy-one-get-one-free Vegan Royale promotion.

Cost of Living: UK inflation rose to 3.5% in September, driven by fuel, while food inflation held at 1.3%. Amnesty says three in four people worry about food costs; Trussell warns 9.1 million could be at risk of needing a food bank by 2029. Supply Chain Costs: Fresh produce businesses fear £300m in extra import costs and are urging the Government to secure a solution with the EU. Producer Pressures: Welsh dairy farmers say higher fuel, fertiliser and feed costs are squeezing margins, with some selling milk below the cost of production. Investment & Innovation: Wrexham food-waste technology firm Mimica has secured funding to expand production, while Northern Ireland is consulting on a biomethane strategy aimed at supporting its agri-food sector. New Products: Biotiful plans to launch kefir cottage cheese in December, targeting a category whose sales value has grown 54% year on year.

Retail & menus: Costa’s UK Christmas menu launches on October 22, with new festive drinks, food and returning seasonal favourites. Food prices: Industry leaders warn proposed healthy-eating rules could raise grocery bills by restricting promotions on products including oat milk and yoghurt, while fresh-produce firms say imports could cost the sector an extra £300 million. Shipping disruption and drought are adding pressure on food prices into 2027. Supply & investment: Boparan Private Office is investing £100 million in British turkey production, citing demand for healthier protein. The NFU is urging potato growers to stand firm on fair prices, as food manufacturers call for stronger government support. Community & environment: Aldi is inviting charities to join its surplus-food scheme ahead of Christmas; it says the partnership has donated more than 15 million meals this year. Guinness’s maker has apologised for a toxic spill in a UK river that killed fish and wildlife.

Food Prices: Shipping disruption and drought are expected to put fresh pressure on UK food prices into 2027, while Scottish farmers warn that rising imports are putting food security at risk. Water Risks: More than half of European industrial leaders surveyed expect water shortages or poor quality to hinder growth within five years; 44% say water stress has already raised operating costs. Scottish Exports: John Swinney is leading a trade mission to India, calling the market a “golden opportunity” for Scottish food and drink businesses, including salmon exporters. Industry Costs: Greene King’s chief has called for relief from rising costs, saying the pub chain is employing fewer teenagers after cost increases. Food Safety: A Wombwell mini-market and its director were fined more than £13,000 over food sold without required allergen information in English. Trade: British dairy exports reached £973 million as AHDB targets growth in Asia and Mexico.

Food Inflation: Global food prices climbed to their highest level since November 2022 in September, as shipping disruption, higher fertiliser costs and drought squeeze supplies. Cereals rose 5.1% month on month, with UK industry forecasts pointing to stronger food inflation in 2027. British Supply Chains: Danone is investing in regenerative agriculture to shore up its British oat supply, while UK dairy exports reached £973m as the sector seeks growth in Asia and Mexico. Food Security: Scottish farmers warn that rising imports threaten domestic food production, as a sell-out Chichester conference puts food security on the agenda. Responsible Business: Oxfordshire brewery Tap Social has earned B Corp certification, recognising its social impact and work supporting prisoners and prison leavers into employment.

Northern Ireland Industry: Food and drink contributes £7.3bn to the region’s economy and supports nearly 109,000 jobs, NIFDA says, urging closer industry-government partnership to boost investment and food security. Barley & Scotch: A difficult harvest has left Scottish spring-barley yields 17% below the five-year average. Meanwhile, bulging whisky stocks are prompting distillers to cut production, squeezing farmers and maltsters. Farm Resilience: Scottish farms averaged just £500 profit from agricultural activity in 2024–25. NFU Scotland is calling for energy support and stronger safeguards on imports as costs, extreme weather and volatile markets threaten domestic food production. Pubs & Drinks: Around 295 pubs closed across Britain from January to September, with 360 closures and 5,000 lost jobs forecast by year-end, adding to pressure on the hospitality trade. Food Policy: England has launched a ten-year plan to expand organic farming, while a proposed tightening of supermarket promotions could affect staples including cereals, yoghurt and pasta sauces.

Farm Resilience: NFU Scotland says rising costs, labour shortages and extreme weather are squeezing farms; average agricultural profit was just £500 in 2024–25. It is urging emergency energy support and stronger safeguards for imports, warning that domestic food production is vital to food security. Welsh Exports: A proposed UK-EU food and drink deal could cut red tape and costs for Welsh lamb and beef exporters. The Prime Minister says exports could rise if an agreement is secured. Hospitality Pressure: One in three UKHospitality members report dine-and-dash incidents, with nearly half saying they are increasing, adding to restaurants’ financial strain. Food Production: The government wants organic farming to cover 10% of England’s agricultural land, while growers face uncertainty over peat-free alternatives amid heat and water shortages. Industry Innovation: Whitchurch-based Jenton won an Automate UK award for UV-C technology designed to decontaminate food powders while preserving quality. Costa has also upgraded more than 10,000 UK supermarket coffee machines to improve drink consistency and speed.